Weather forecast and macro-scale analysis: UK weather forecast for the next 2 weeks

 My current expectation for the next 2 weeks is a continuation of the weaker westerly flow, possibly interrupted by some anomalous high pressure, but nothing strong or long lasting enough to bring large changes in weather conditions. As a result, changeable weather conditions are expected for this period. Temperatures should oscillate near average, with drier conditions between fronts of rain, and potentially snow further north, on high ground

The MJO is expected to move into phases 8-1-2, or with too little amplitude for those phases. These support a NAO+, westerly flow, but the lower amplitude of them means that the signal isn't as strong. Either way, they aren't supportive of a very blocked pattern at all

Fri 23 Jan 2026

Secondly, this MJO/ER analogue is very supportive of low-pressure anomalies over and to the north of the UK, and high-pressure anomalies to our south. This is a clear example of a NAO+, which brings westerlies to Euro-Atlantic

Notice the lack of a very strong low-pressure anomaly in Canada? This isn't supportive of one of those generic NAO+ patterns, where the coldest air concentrates over Greenland and Canada. Without this, westerlies don't have enough of their westerly energy to properly push past the UK and travel NE, so snow field and cold temperatures in Scandinavia get stuck under high pressure at the surface, which helps to weaken and push the jet stream south, therefore weakening westerlies. The ECM ENS also supports this

image.png

In addition, strangely, there's a NAO- and AO- signal in long range weather models, which can help to weaken westerlies further

NAO Index

AO Index

Mon 02 Feb 2026 - Mon 09 Feb 2026

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

The Impacts of an AMOC collapse on Europe

Image
The impacts of an AMOC collapse on Europe Introduction As the Earth has warmed, one section of the Atlantic Ocean has been cooling. This has been attributed to an ocean current, known as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) weakening. This ocean current regulates the climate worldwide by transporting waters at different temperatures, but this is expected to continue to weaken with climate change, bringing worrying consequences on the climate. However, a more extreme, but still a very plausible scenario of the current collapsing may occur as early as mid-century, where the climate may rapidly change within a few decades. In this summary, I'll focus on Europe. Source: High-resolution ‘fingerprint’ images reveal a weakening Atlantic Ocean circulation (AMOC) The AMOC brings warmer water from the Gulf of Mexico to Europe, contributing to keeping its climate mild in comparison to areas such as Canada. Under a collapse, a lot of the warmer water is shut off, shown by the...
Read more

Long range UK weather forecast: 8th February 2026

Image
First, let's look at the main factors at play. Current situation Lack of a clear tropospheric polar vortex Higher pressure over Greenland, but not strong enough to have a big influence aside from weakening the Atlantic storm track High pressure over Scandinavian snow cover, trapping cold air that forces the Atlantic storm track to weaken and shift south as it moves west, into the UK Active Atlantic storm track, albeit weaker on the eastern side as it passes over the UK As a result, you have a weak zonal flow dominating the UK, causing rain, as well as more settled weather between low pressure systems. The lack of jet stream amplification keeps temperatures close to average. Mid-range model output On Monday to Wednesday, pressure over Scandinavia is reduced, strengthening the storm track. It creates wetter and slightly milder conditions On the rest of the week, cold air in Scandinavia and Siberia mixes with the Atlantic storm track. In the north of the UK, there's more influence...
Read more

Cold spell inbound for the UK? Can we see more cold in early and mid Febuary?

Image
This weekend and into next week, high pressure over Scandinavia will draw in cold air into Europe, and also block and push the jet stream south, allowing this cold air to move over the UK, starting with the north. For the northeast of the UK, this easterly winds over the North Sea may stir up some snow showers under low temperatures. For the south, things look more uncertain, but temperatures will be below average, with risks of rain and snow Past this point, may we see further cold spells?  First of all, the EC46 suggests this, but at the same time, it does very often overestimate the risks of weather patterns that tend to bring cold weather to the UK. High pressure north of us blocks westerlies and forces the jet stream south, which can lead to cold air from the north, east or northeast filling in the gap Notice the high pressure to our north and low pressure to our south? That's a clear NAO- pattern here. Both the GEFS and CFS are on board with the NAO- being negative till mid-F...
Read more