Is a cold easterly likely in the UK? No, but I wouldn't rule it out...

In all honestly, a cold easterly still seems to be highly an outside risk. The risk was never a major one imo, but I'm not going to assume that it won't happen

My reasoning is firstly that the CFS, even after several days of watching, has not predicted a NAO- a single time during mid or late January. The CFS managed to pick up on the current cold spell, and the one in mid-late November a few weeks before they happened

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Secondly, these MJO and Rossby Wave analogs, which picked up on the potential for a Scandi high in late February, and the retrogression in early January, also weeks before they happened does show some potential for an easterly, but it leans more towards the weather pattern being too far east to bring proper cold to us. Here's the link to it, since imo it's an underrated long range forecast tool and it seems impossible to find without the specific link: n = 10

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Thirdly, and most importantly, there's a lack of support from ensembles. I understand that this may easily change, which is why I'm still considering the possibility of a cold easterly. While new trends, especially for easterlies tend to be picked up by deterministic runs first, it would be too bullish to assume a major risk of one without support from ensembles

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However, cold spells, especially easterlies tend to remain highly uncertain at this range, so I still hope for this to turn into a proper chase. So far, I put the risk at 20% 

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