Might we see some very cold and snowy weather next week?

Persistently high pressure over Scandinavia is blocking the jet stream, allowing notably cold air to rush in and fill the gap in continental Europe.



This high pressure will likely move west, helping to reduce the dominance of the jet stream over the UK, and move it south (red arrow), which may cause the cold air over Europe to flood the UK (pink arrow). Setups like these are notoriously precarious, so I can't say that it is anywhere near guaranteed at the moment. If it does come off well, this cold air can pick up moisture from the North Sea to create snow, similar to lake-effect snow.



While weather models haven't been supporting the risk too well recently, the chance of this setup (cold easterly) has increased last night and this morning. Here's some weather probabilities for the weather in 10 days:

  • 31% - cold across the country, snowy, possibly rainy

  • 29% - fairly cold, wet, possibly snowy in the north and east

  • 28% - cool, wet, windy

  • 12% - mild and dry in the south, cool and wet in the north


Overall, global patterns may very well be supporting this, which is explained in my last post

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