Overall synoptic analysis for late January, for the UK - easterly potential

 Here's the EPS mean from day 10 to day 15


There's decent agreement towards higher pressure over the poles, pushing the negative Arctic Oscillation negative. This would normally help to inhibit a westerly for the Euro-Atlantic, but the TPV lobe over east Canada keeps pushing low pressure systems out, into the Atlantic, and with a lack of amplification, there's not much to stop the continued weak zonal flow, aside from higher pressure in northeast Europe, which is too far east to create a more blocked weather pattern over us without the jet stream taking more of a southeast route, which doesn't seem to be there yet, especially with the Azores high propping up the low pressure systems to keep sufficiently north.

For those hoping for easterlies, the potential is there since the jet is weak enough and pressure over Scandinavia is anomalously high. One area for upgrades that is easy to overlook would be a weakening of the Azores high, to help the jet stream move southeast, and therefore allow a Scandinavian high to allow cold air to flood southwest, over the UK. The most likely outcome still seems to be weak westerly and southwesterly winds dominating the UK out to day 15, with interludes over the UK of cooler and milder temperatures. While ensembles have their limitations which may be causing them to underestimate the risk of an easterly, the EPS, out of all models and ensembles continues to be the best at representing the likely outcomes and trends.

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