Long range UK weather forecast: 1st January 2026

Before I come to any conclusions, let's look at the variables at play


Current situation

  • An existing, but disorganized TPV (white circle), driving Atlantic storm track (black line) across the ocean, to the UK
  • Persistent high pressure at the surface over Scandinavian snow cover (red circle), blocking the storm track from eastern Europe, weakening it and driving it south. It keeps cold air nearby


Mid-range model output

Cold air from Scandinavia may draw east into northeastern England in the short term. Otherwise, the somewhat stormy, average pattern over the rest of the UK continues

Beginning next weekend, a weakening of the Atlantic storm track may force the jet stream south, allowing the cold air in Scandinavia to push west, into the UK. However, this sort of pattern is especially precarious and subtle shifts in the pattern could doom the UK back into the Atlantic storm track. As well as this, strong blocking to our west (that could make this pattern a whole lot more likely) seems unlikely


Long range model output

EC46
  • 9th - 16th: high pressure to the north allows cold air from Scandinavia to move towards the UK while mild, wet systems try to move in from the west. Snow along the boundary. It's more likely to be cold in the northeast of the UK than the southwest
  • Late February: westerlies win out, but higher pressure in the Arctic is maintained

GEFS (35 day)
It generally sticks to colder air in the north of the UK, and milder in the south



Arctic Oscillation
The AO is expected to be negative, which means that an especially strong jet stream across the world is very unlikely



NAO

There's a signal for a NAO- on the first half of February. The signal falls apart after that. It means that at least for the first half of February, it means that an especially strong storm track in the North Atlantic is unlikely, so cold air will likely remain nearby, even if westerlies win out



AAM
AAM is lower over the same latitude of the UK, while being higher to the south and to the north but not exceptionally so. It supports a wavier jet stream that can allow anomalous dry, warm and cold weather though anomalous high pressure (such as on Scandinavia). However, this doesn't allow for high pressure to actually block the jet stream, but only slow and briefly delay its progress, so it tends to not allow for exceptionally cold weather, let alone it being long lasting.

It's also oscillating around neutral, with no sign of a rapid increase or decrease. A increase may speed up the Atlantic storm track, allowing milder, wetter westerlies to win over, while a decrease may slow it down, but not that much, allowing a higher chance of cold easterlies to win out.


MJO



The MJO is moving through phase 8, which can support a NAO-. Past this point, the support falls towards a NAO+. Regardless, the amplitude is expected to be weak, so any influence on our weather won't be especially strong. It also supports a lack of strong blocks of the jet stream


Zonal winds

While a significant weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex is about to occur, it isn't expected to have much of an impact on our weather until late January. Once it does bring an impact, it may greatly increase the risk of blocked weather, particularly cold-supporting setups


Concluding forecast
  • 2nd-8th February : westerlies are expected to bring average temperatures to much of the UK and limited sunshine between wet weather. Cold air from the northeast will try to move towards the UK, possibly bringing colder weather and snow to the north and east of the UK
  • 8th-15th February: a continuation of the same conditions are possible, with an increasing risk of cold air pushing further southwest. Organised snowfall along the boundary, as well as coastal snowfall on eastern coasts is possible where temperatures plummet low enough
  • 15th-22nd February: weather conditions become much more uncertain at this point. Especially mild, or especially stormy weather is much less likely than average or cold temperatures





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