SPG convection collapse: an imminent climate tipping point?
In the shorter term, a more imminent potential tipping point could be an SPG convection collapse: Abrupt Climate Change in the Subpolar North Atlantic: Drivers and Impacts In this study, climate models show that this tipping point is not a matter of if it happens, but when it happens. It may suggest that the tipping point may have already been reached, and the SPG convection is already in terminal decline, or it may be as a result of climate model biases, not including Greenland freshwater runoff, and resolution, which isn't high enough to properly represent eddies, though the model used (CESM2-LENS) is still fairly skillful. The timing of the collapse is uncertain, but the risk raises significantly in the 2030s, and into mid-century. The collapse would cause a significant drop in SSTs in the subpolar gyre, so it essentially strengthens the NAWH/cold blob, and is a more minor, abrupt version of an AMOC collapse, that would occur before it. The ensemble mean for the timing of this...