Jacob's weather forecasts

I've had much time to forecast lately, but I just noticed that there seems to be a risk of thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon, south of the M4, particularly further inland The ingredients that come together for this are moderate CAPE, low CIN, low LFC, 7C/km lapse rates, and wind convergence. It means that in theory, there could be plenty of convective energy to create thunderstorms. Wind convergence may allow thunderstorms to stall over one area and strengthen, creating flooding and a risk of hail, though the risk of severe weather in any one area is low

Tonight and into tomorrow, a warm front will pass over the UK, bringing widespread rain, turning to snow over areas where cold enough air still lingers As a result of the milder weather taking over, a thaw is expected soon after, wherever snow accumulates. Here's a snow forecast:  

According to the ICON-EU  ENS , the median outcome would be an M4 north snow event The 25th percentile looks supportive of snow everywhere but the south coast And the 75th percentile restricts it to Northern England  

Significant potential for snow this week, especially on Friday, where an area of low pressure can sweep to the south of the UK, bringing snow The position of the snowfall is unclear, anywhere from France to the Pennies, but it’s very possible that even a few miles north/south could make the difference between  torrential rain and blizzard conditions Here’s one possible scenario, with historic levels of snowfall for the southeast, but it’s important to consider that this is a best case scenario for the London area. Even if they are favourably positioned just north of the snow line (which it most likely won’t be), very minor changes in temperature, depth of the low pressure, dew points etc could just turn it into some sleet that barely leaves any snow on the ground