Jacob's weather forecasts

I'm not convinced of a moderate risk of thunderstorms anywhere, given the lack of precipitation showing up on models. It suggests a more high impact, low likelihood hazard 

 There's some interesting convective potential on Monday in the southeast, and more widespread potential on Tuesday Given that these are a couple day out, bear in mind that the situation is highly volatile. On both days, we will be seeing a low MUCAPE (<750 J/kg), but high shear (30kn+) setup associated with a cold front. This makes it tricky to forecast, as it's perfectly plausible that we don't see much stormy weather at all (particularly on Monday), or that severe weather quickly evolves into a rainy mess. The main hazards on both days are flash flooding and strong winds, as storms have the potential to organize, possibly into supercells. There's also a more marginal risk of hail on Tuesday. The risk of tornadoes and funnel clouds is low, as the atmosphere is only marginally favorable of storm rotation.