Cold spell inbound for the UK? Can we see more cold in early and mid Febuary?

This weekend and into next week, high pressure over Scandinavia will draw in cold air into Europe, and also block and push the jet stream south, allowing this cold air to move over the UK, starting with the north. For the northeast of the UK, this easterly winds over the North Sea may stir up some snow showers under low temperatures. For the south, things look more uncertain, but temperatures will be below average, with risks of rain and snow


Past this point, may we see further cold spells? 

First of all, the EC46 suggests this, but at the same time, it does very often overestimate the risks of weather patterns that tend to bring cold weather to the UK. High pressure north of us blocks westerlies and forces the jet stream south, which can lead to cold air from the north, east or northeast filling in the gap



Notice the high pressure to our north and low pressure to our south? That's a clear NAO- pattern here. Both the GEFS and CFS are on board with the NAO- being negative till mid-Febuary. A NAO- typically supports a much higher risk of cold weather in the UK, especially in the south


However, I'm not expecting a particularly exceptional weather pattern with a firmly amplified, displaced jet stream. Instead, probably weak ridges and troughs that struggle to dominate over weak westerlies. What's my reasoning for this? Well, the MJO is expected to move into phases 8-1-2, but at a weak amplitude. These typically support a NAO+ pattern, but the NAO- suggested by the weather models, as well as the amplitude being weak leans towards more of a weak-zonal to a slightly blocked pattern over the Atlantic.

The AAM isn't doing anything too special either, just oscillating at slightly negative, and it isn't expected to change a lot. As a result, the polar jet stream is expected to stay further north, and AAM is weaker in the mid-latitudes which amplifies the jet stream to bring blocking, but the lack of a properly shut down Atlantic flow (which would come from a much more notable decrease in AAM), or a stronger subtropical jet stream and polar jet stream (from a quick increase in AAM), blocked patterns aren't expected to dominate too well over westerlies.

In summary, into February, there is potential for cold spells via weakish ridges and anomalous high pressure in the mid and high latitudes, but nothing exceptional or sustained is expected.



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