Long range UK weather forecast: 8th February 2026

First, let's look at the main factors at play.



Current situation

































  • Lack of a clear tropospheric polar vortex
  • Higher pressure over Greenland, but not strong enough to have a big influence aside from weakening the Atlantic storm track
  • High pressure over Scandinavian snow cover, trapping cold air that forces the Atlantic storm track to weaken and shift south as it moves west, into the UK
  • Active Atlantic storm track, albeit weaker on the eastern side as it passes over the UK
As a result, you have a weak zonal flow dominating the UK, causing rain, as well as more settled weather between low pressure systems. The lack of jet stream amplification keeps temperatures close to average.



Mid-range model output














On Monday to Wednesday, pressure over Scandinavia is reduced, strengthening the storm track. It creates wetter and slightly milder conditions















On the rest of the week, cold air in Scandinavia and Siberia mixes with the Atlantic storm track. In the north of the UK, there's more influence from colder air, so temperatures drop below average. In the south, there's more influence from the Atlantic storm track, so temperatures stay roughly around average. Unsettled weather is expected to continue, with risks of snow away from the south of the UK, particularly on high ground















For the 15th to the 19th of February, the colder pattern is expected to break down. At this point, the envelope of possibilities is far greater, but there's support for the Atlantic storm track to maintain its influence, with temperatures continuing to hover close to average. This results in a continuation of unsettled conditions






























On the 20th of February onwards, conditions turn far more uncertain as expected at this range. There is a signal for the Atlantic storm track to lose its dominance over the UK as pressure rises to the west, or over the UK. This then raises a higher risk of drier conditions, and a wider range of possible temperatures.



Long range model output








In late-February, there's a signal for higher pressure from the south, bringing milder temperatures, although temperatures can drop lower if the high pressure is to the west. Neither of these signals are strong







This is supported by the increase in the "blocked" regime, meaning anomalous high pressure in Europe, or specifically Scandinavia. However, there's still a notable NAO+ signal, where the Atlantic storm track, or westerlies maintains dominance over the UK, and a low, but notable ATR risk, where high pressure is far enough west to allow cold air to reach the UK. Neither signal is strong



Arctic Oscillation






There's a signal for a weak AO- to a neutral AO is likely in late February, which typically means a weaker jet stream, raising the risk of anomalous high, and especially low temperatures over the UK, as well as drier weather.



North Atlantic Oscillation






There's a signal for a neutral NAO in late February, so neither strong westerlies, bringing wet weather, or easterlies and northerlies, bringing cold weather is supported. A neutral NAO doesn't support anomalous high pressure in the North Atlantic, but can be supportive of anomalous high pressure in Europe.



Atmospheric Angular Momentum












The dominance of the Atlantic storm track over the UK is the result of the subtropical jet stream being stronger than usual, favouring low pressure systems moving across the UK, but not to the north of it. The weakening of it before it can reach central Europe is the result of AAM being neutral to below average at 50-60N, while the subtropical jet stream remains weak and generally unanchored. It means that while the jet stream can't be especially strong Europe, any meanders of it (that create anomalous dry/warm/cold weather) are transient and not very intense in western Europe.













However, AAM is decreasing. While it's not at a speed that supports a proper shutdown of the Atlantic storm track, it can lead to the subtropical and polar jet stream to weaken in the second half of February, which supports the anomalous high pressure in the UK, or to the west of it, allowing drier conditions



Madden Julian Oscillation






























The MJO is moving through phase 2, which will have its impacts in mid-late February.














Shown by the graph below, it doesn't have a huge impact on British weather, but it does support higher pressure in Europe, centred in the midlatitudes, bringing drier, slightly milder weather. The amplitude expected with phase 2 is low, making the influence lesser.















The MJO is also expected to move into phase 3, impacting weather in late-February, but the impacts are a bit ambiguous. There's anomalous higher pressure in Greenland and Iceland, which can support cold weather from northerlies and easterlies, but the lower pressure immediately to the southwest of the UK can suggest an active Atlantic storm track that weakens and moves south as it reaches the UK, bringing unsettled weather and average temperatures. Either way, the MJO isn't expected to be at a high amplitude, so the influence isn't too high.



Zonal winds















Winds in the stratospheric northern hemisphere are expected to stay roughly around average for the next 7 days. This means that both a strong jet stream, bringing mild, wet weather and an especially weak jet stream, bringing dry weather and a wide envelope of potential temperatures are unlikely. 



Concluding forecast
  • 9th-11th February: Low pressure systems from the west will dominate, bringing average temperatures and rain
  • 12th-14th February: Westerlies will combine with colder, northerly winds, keeping conditions roughly the same in the south of the UK, while temperatures in the Midlands and especially further north drop. Wet conditions are expected to continue, with higher risks of snowfall further north, especially on high ground
  • 15th-19th February: Temperatures are expected to return to average as low pressure systems from the west regain dominance over the entirety of the UK, bringing wetter weather
  • Late February: Particularly mild, or cold weather is unlikely. Instead, there's an uncertain risk of higher pressure in the UK, bringing drier conditions and fairly average temperatures

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