Snow forecast: 4th January


 

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The Impacts of an AMOC collapse on Europe

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The impacts of an AMOC collapse on Europe Introduction As the Earth has warmed, one section of the Atlantic Ocean has been cooling. This has been attributed to an ocean current, known as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) weakening. This ocean current regulates the climate worldwide by transporting waters at different temperatures, but this is expected to continue to weaken with climate change, bringing worrying consequences on the climate. However, a more extreme, but still a very plausible scenario of the current collapsing may occur as early as mid-century, where the climate may rapidly change within a few decades. In this summary, I'll focus on Europe. Source: High-resolution ‘fingerprint’ images reveal a weakening Atlantic Ocean circulation (AMOC) The AMOC brings warmer water from the Gulf of Mexico to Europe, contributing to keeping its climate mild in comparison to areas such as Canada. Under a collapse, a lot of the warmer water is shut off, shown by the...
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Jet stream analysis - is blocked, cold weather turning more likely?

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Not really sure how this stuff really, works, but I'll have a look at  AAM The drop in  AAM , at least for now, and it will likely remain weakly negative The January weakening of  AAM  seems to have led to the polar jet stream largely weakening, while the subtropical jet stream has weakened and shifted south, while the stalling in the decrease in  AAM  may have led to the polar jet stream shifting north, into the high latitudes (70 to 90N) My educated guess is that the weakening and shifting south of the subtropical jet stream will likely lead to less influence from the Azores high and southern Europe highs on our weather, so a lesser risk of them ruining the potential cold spell. Meanwhile, the polar jet stream, that's tends to be on the same latitude of us, weakens and is displaced north, causing a raise of pressure in the high latitudes. My guess is that both the jet streams moving away from each other would increase the amplitude of Rossby waves and the...
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Cold spell inbound for the UK? Can we see more cold in early and mid Febuary?

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This weekend and into next week, high pressure over Scandinavia will draw in cold air into Europe, and also block and push the jet stream south, allowing this cold air to move over the UK, starting with the north. For the northeast of the UK, this easterly winds over the North Sea may stir up some snow showers under low temperatures. For the south, things look more uncertain, but temperatures will be below average, with risks of rain and snow Past this point, may we see further cold spells?  First of all, the EC46 suggests this, but at the same time, it does very often overestimate the risks of weather patterns that tend to bring cold weather to the UK. High pressure north of us blocks westerlies and forces the jet stream south, which can lead to cold air from the north, east or northeast filling in the gap Notice the high pressure to our north and low pressure to our south? That's a clear NAO- pattern here. Both the GEFS and CFS are on board with the NAO- being negative till mid-F...
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